Browsing the blog archives for January, 2009.

Labour thinks Mancunians are gullible

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Being a Yorkshireman I suppose I see their point!

Seriously though, this latest move on ID cards beggars belief:

Manchester is one of several areas being considered in the UK to act as a test bed for the rollout of ID cards to UK citizens.

Thousands of people living in the pilot areas, likely to be major UK cities, will be able to get ID cards from November this year.

Looking at the wording I suspect they are flying a kite here to see the response. Lets hope the good people of Manchester show themselves to be level headed and tell the Government to get stuffed, again.

The Home Office will lobby banks, retailers, councils and universities in these “beacon areas” to allow the cards to be used with their services, such as opening a bank account or proving age when buying alcohol.

This is a bit more worrying given the way that this centralising Government has taken control of just about everything that moves. Banks will just about do anything they are told given that they are everyone’s bogeymen and responsible for everything except child porn and climate change, even those are open for debate.

Councils and universities will have no choice given how they are funded. Retailers will be interesting although I am sure their will be some implied threat of legislation to make their lives more difficult.

Volunteers for the ID card pilot will get their cards ahead of the wider UK population, who will be able to apply for ID cards from 2011.

Given that 30% of the population are still gullible/mad enough to say they will vote Labour I don’t doubt their will be some volunteers. All that will do is add more weight to the “care in the community” doesn’t work argument .

Speaking today at a conference hosted by the BCS Security Forum, identity minister Meg Hillier said: “We need heavy penetration in order to get the cards to work.

I will leave readers to use their own imaginations about what needs penetrating and what object they would like use. I have a vision of politicans being lined up, bent over and ID cards being shoved….

“They won’t work if nobody has any idea what they are. We need everyone to recognise the cards, from workers in the Co-op, to bank staff.”

Before we decide if they are working we need to know what problem they are fixing. I still haven’t seen one argument that hasn’t been shot down in flames within 30 seconds of being but forward.

Hillier said the price of the cards will be fixed at £30 until 2011 and that talks are continuing with high-street businesses to host the machines needed to take the fingerprint and facial scans stored on the cards and the National Identity Register.

Hasn’t she noticed there’s a recession on and people have better things to spend £30 on. If they haven’t then they need their heads looking at and we are back to the care in the community argument again.

The government hopes the cards will become a single form of ID allowing individuals to do everything from opening a bank account to buying parking permits.

I would like to think that spending £12Bn of our money would bring more than hope! Just goes to show they still have a solution looking for a problem. But then again this shower have shown they have absolutly no idea about the value of other people’s money.

However, Hillier added that the government cannot make it compulsory for people to have an ID card to access public services, as that would require new legislation

The implied threat being that they will legislate, or more likely be instructed to by our real Government in Brussels. When will the Tories start shouting from the roof tops that they will kill this waste of money?

According to Hillier, the public wants the biometric cards, adding that home secretary Jacqui Smith is already being asked: “When can I get my ID card?”.

Listen, you moron, a few people high on their medication walking up to that authoritarian bitch currently occupying the position of  Home Secretary and claiming they want an ID card is no basis for spending £12Bn to take away the relationship we have had with the state for centuries ie we go about our daily business as we see fit and its fuck all to do with them.

Here’s a challenge – if you really believe its popular, hold a referendum. You daren’t, dare you?

A website where people can register their interest in getting a ID card will be launched in the spring.

Ah, its really a way of finding out which care in the community contenders have splipped through the net at the last round-up.

Far be it for me to encoruage people to break the law but given the Governments track record on IT projects we can expect delays and then some fun as this with technical know how set to work on it.

God how I hate them and even mre for spoiling my start to the weekend. (I get these stories in trade newsletters so can’t ignore them!)

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UK Will Not Legislate On File Sharing Piracy

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The UK’s Intellectual Property minister David Lammy has said the government will not force internet service providers to pursue file sharers.

There had been mounting speculation about government legislation on the issue as the music industry steps up its fight against the pirates.

This is good as it would be horrendous to implement. Furthermore, IPS’s don’t like file sharing anyway. It screws up capacity and means that those who aren’t file sharing get reduced quality.

Anyway, I don’t remember anyyone wanting to make the highways agency responsible for people driving stolen cars or cars without tax/insurance on their roads.

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Talk Talk Offers Credit Crunch Package

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This is quite an astute move from Charles Dunstone:

Charles Dunstone, CEO of TalkTalk Group (www.talktalk.co.uk), today launched an emergency home phone and broadband plan to help customers facing financial difficulties in 2009. The Emergency Plan will give people suffering economic hardship free access to the internet and phone for six months. TalkTalk will waive its £6.49 monthly charge, meaning customers on the Emergency Plan only pay line rental.

Under the terms of the plan, customers will be given a six-month grace period, during which time they will be provided with a free, basic service to make sure they can still access the internet and use their phone. This six-month period is intended to give affected customers enough time to sort out their finances.

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The Emergency Plan will offer 512kbps speed, with a 1Gb download limit, inclusive UK weekend calls and anytime calls to other TalkTalk customers. Premium, international and mobile calls will be barred to help customers limit expenditure.

Especially as some of the telecoms research I have been looking at shows that 43% of people see broadband as a necessity and mobile as a luxury/can live without. Whilst only 1% see mobile as a necessity and broadband as a luxury.

Furthermore, a total of 64% reckon broadband is a necessity whilst only 28% reckon mobile is a necessity. In total 21% reckon having mobile and broadband is a necessity.

It looks like he could be in for another scrap with the mobile operators if they perceive he is pitching for their customers.

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Climate Change Letter Of The Week

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From this week’s Economist

SIR – Greenland’s ice sheet has an average depth of three kilometres, lies mostly undisturbed, and predates climatic periods much warmer than the present. Therefore, your assertion that its ice sheet, “is on course to melt completely” makes about as much sense as the belief, common until very recently, that property prices would rise indefinitely.

Robin Glass
Oak Bay, Canada

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No surprises this has happened

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Whenever new laws are passed in haste in response to some whipped up public moral outrage we can be sure that it will be zealously applied to those for whom it wasn’t intended. That it has happened in the case of all the new sex offender laws should be no surprise.

Whilst this has happened in the USA it is only a matter of time before some of our own teenagers get unnecessarily stigmatised for life for doing something similar.

Recently, six teenagers at a Pennsylvania high school were caught participating in a new fad called ‘sexting.’ Named as an obvious takeoff of texting, it is a practice in which one sends nude or semi-nude photographs of oneself, via a cell phone, to a peer – usually of the opposite sex. In this particular case, three girls had been taking and sending nude photographs of themselves to three boys. Besides being suspended from school, these teens, incredibly enough, now face much more serious consequences.

My only surprise what that it has taken so long for something like this to happen – or at least come to light because it has probably been happening since phones went on cameras and MMS/email became cheap to send.  I have no problem with the school suspending them, they have to set an example, but this is madness:

The girls are being charged with manufacturing and disseminating child pornography. The boys face charges of possession of child porn. All six of these students are minors, under the age of 18. Granted, these kids were participating in lewd and immoral acts on school grounds and were well deserving of their suspensions.

Yes, those laws designed to to be used on the dirty old paedo’s identified by the Daily Mail/Mirror or News of the World has now been applied to children who were doing nothing more than larking about.

And just like here the USA has its own sex offenders register:

If convicted of the charges brought against them, these six teens would likely be stigmatized for life. Each would be labeled with our modern-day scarlet letter – sex offender. This label is an albatross around one’s neck that is difficult, if not impossible, to remove. In many states, it means they would have to register as sex offenders and then be constantly monitored by law enforcement officials in addition to being restricted in where they could live, work, and visit. All of this after possibly serving prison sentences. And for what? The girls for being stupid and the boys for being … well … boys! What a heavy price to pay for such ‘offenses’!

And if they are really lucky the register will be printed on the web so that in 20 years time all everyone will know is that they are pervs.

Just use your own mind to change the odd word for USA to UK in this summation:

It’s as if we are living in some silly Islamic theocracy instead of the United States of America. This is the kind of overzealous law enforcement that often makes the U.S. the laughing stock of the rest of the civilized world. I can just imagine their laughter right now. It would indeed be funny if it wasn’t so sad. It’s right up there with many of those asinine “zero tolerance” stances and other breaches of common sense. One can only hope and pray that reasonable judges will intervene in this case and spare these kids a life of hell and our nation further humiliation.

It also says a lot that this was reported in a trade magazine for the mobile industry speaks volumes as well.

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Comparing Recessions

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I was thinking about the mood of people and the general attitude to this recession and how this compares with the recession of the early 80’s and the end of the early 90’s. There is no doubt in my mind that the this time the national mood is going to be angrier as people feel betrayed and that we are here through no fault of their own. I am aware that there is some recency bias in my thinking, as well as some political bias, but let me explain.

By the time we got to the recession of the early 80’s we had had 10 years of economic problems. Inflation had been allowed to rise in the pursuit of keeping unemployment down and we had strikes galore in the pursuit of higher wages. We had become the “sick man of Europe” and most of the population had grown weary of the constant disruption to our daily lives caused by constant strike or other “industrial action” such as “working to rule*”. The Unions were seen as a major cause of the problem and this reflected badly on Labour, who appeared to capitulate to every demand. The Tories, in opposition, found it easy to score political points and keep Labour on the back foot.

Despite all this the Conservatives only just managed to win the ‘79 election and there was hardly a groundswell of euphoria. So when the inevitable recession came, some would argue caused by the Tories, there was some anger, but a lot of this anger was really frustration and directed at ourselves. There was grudging acceptance that  we had brought it on ourselves and when we were told to “tighten our belts” we knew this was because the measures being taken were necessary.

The change in Government did give the Tories a huge breathing space to do what they thought was necessary but they had to burn a lot of political capital.  Whilst there was a lot of noisy anger generated by Labour and the Unions it was, by and large, dismissed my the majority because they were seen as the culprits and needed taking down a peg or two. That said, there is no doubt that the Tories were were looking like loosing the ‘82 election and that the Falklands War* and Labour’s move even further to the  left helped to save them. This extra term gave the Tories time to benefit from any upswing in the economy and whether by look or judgement they were credit with fixing the economy.

This time we are hitting the recession after a lengthy period of economic growth and social stability. We were told that there was a new economic paradigm and that boom and bust had ended. The Chancellor during this extended growth was lauded by himself and his many acolytes as an economic miracle worker and we were told we were now living in the land of milk and honey and had nothing to fear.  So when this recession arrived it came as a shock to many and they were confused as it seemed to come out of nowhere. What added to the general bewilderment was the term “credit crunch”, this was a technical term few had heard of and even fewer understood. So who they to blame this time?

The banks have been a handy scape goat, everyone hates a banker, but as I said in a post below, bankers have been doing what bankers do, so we can hardly blame them. To help people decide  Labour have been blaming bankers every time they open their mouths. Better still, they have been able to blame the The Great Satan’s bankers who they can claim were egged on by everyone’s favourite hate figure, George Bush.

Now, though, we are seeing a different mood. As people started to understand what was really going on they appear to have realised that this recession was partly of our own making. Interest rates were kept low and borrowing increased. Gordon is being blamed, rightly or wrongly, for not saving when times were good and for lumbering us with a new debt. What’s more they are now realising there is no end to the increasing debt. Those in private industry are becoming jealous of those who work for the state*who appear to have a job for life. Those in the state sector are looking over their shoulder wondering if/when the Government will turn its mind to the cost of the state sector.

Amongst all this is a realisation that we didn’t really get an improvement is state provided services for all that extra money money lavished on them. People are starting to feel betrayed and realising there is no chance of a change in Government for 17 months or so, so we won’t be seeing cathartic release of the tensions that are building up. They are worn down and depressed and don’t know where to turn.

OK, these are my own observations and I have used some gross generalisations. But my sense of the public mood is that similar to about 1996. It didn’t  matter what John Major did, and don’t forget the economy was on the up then, people just weren’t interested. He had used up his political capital and no amount of pleading was going to change the mood. It is the same for Gordon now, he has betryed people and used up his political capital. He can keep repeating his mantra’s about banks and us being well placed, people aren’t listening. They have made up their minds and unless he gets Falklands moment the end is, thankfully, inevitable.

*As someone said at the time – if working to rule cause so much trouble which idiot drew up the rules?

**Which was replaced 10 fold when the Falklands were successfully liberated.

***According to the BBC’s More Or Less the median salary in the state sector is higher than the private sector

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Bent Peers

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That we need rules to tell Peers that they shouldn’t be talking money to change the law to suit a specific organisation or person is a sad indictment on their Lordships.

That it isn’t illegal is is beyond comprehension.

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Why I can’t get angry at bankers

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I have worked on a number of projects with investment bankers* and as a general rule found them to be greedy, arrogant, aloof and selfish beyond belief. It is hard to think of any kind word for them, possibly hard working because they do seem to put in a lot of hours. but that is damning them with feint praise.

There is nothing new in my opinion and I am sure you would be hard pressed to find anyone, including bankers, who disagree with that summation. So it is with surpise that I hear and read all the comments in the press saying how we should be angry with them. Take this from Philip Johnston:

Beyond the sheer incredulity, there is anger that the people responsible have cushioned themselves financially against the privations that their recklessness will induce in millions of others. The people at the top may lose their jobs, but they have already paid themselves so much in bonuses and struck such lucrative pension deals that they can retire in luxury while the rest of us face penury.

Being angry with a banker for doing what we they know they do is like keeping a cat and getting angry when it catches birds. Its what they do, if you don’t like it keep them locked up,  which is cruel to cats IMHO, and control their environment. We keep cats because we want hem to keep vermin down and we keep bankers because they do carry out a useful function. If we let them get out of control and do things we don’t like its our own fault.

Those who I do get angry with are those charged with controlling the bankers: regulators and politicians, but mainly politicians. They have basked in the reflected glory of the engineered property bubble of the last 10 years, rubbing shoulders with the top bankers at glitzy functions and ignoring warnings that it couldn’t carry on.

And now, too late, the stable door is being closed by the FSA:

The chairman of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) announced dramatic changes to banking regulation last night, including much higher capital ratios and new liquidity requirements.

If bankers have broken the law lets follow the US trend arrest them in public, with as much humiliation as possible**, and lock them up for a very long time if they are guilt. If they haven’t broken the law and we don’t like what they did and the way they did it lets look at the real culprits, the Government of the day.

I am just finishing Paul krugman’s The Return of Depression Economics and the one thing that struck me is that in all the bubbles and finacial problems he reports bankers have pushed the boundaries of regulation and legality almost to breaking point. The first book I read with any sort of ecenomics content was about bubbles and how they grow. In all the cases it is regulators and politicians who don’t step in to temper the rise in popular green for fear of being unpopular. Well, they are unpopular with me, at least.

*I use the term bankers to generically mean investment bankers, stock exchange traders, currency traders and anyone else that is involved in moving money around the system.

** Yes I know they are presumed innocent, but a bit the humiliation of a public arrest is more to do with their own percieved status and may encourage the others.

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Quote of the day

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I don’t know the provenance of this one but it was told to me by a friend when we discussing Labour’s authoritarian streak:

“No sacrifice is worth 3 extra years in a geriatric home”

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Lest we forget

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The Economists review of martin Wolf’s new book reminds us that despite our current problems all that finance stuff does bring benefits

Mr Wolf, chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, begins with a truth that is easy to forget: sophisticated finance does bring benefits. Finance allows the creation of vast enterprises out of the combined capital, supplied at modest cost, of millions of people. It permits upstarts to launch companies, challenging the power of incumbents. It allows people to smooth their spending over a lifetime. It facilitates risk sharing and insurance. Empirical studies confirm that these advantages are real. Countries that had large financial sectors in 1960 grew faster over the next three decades than those that did not. A doubling in the size of private credit in a developing country has been shown to boost the growth rate by an average of 2 percentage points a year. Developing countries that open their stock markets to foreign investors reap big benefits: output per worker grows by 2.3 percentage points faster than it would have done otherwise.

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